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Research Information

Title Economics, Power Transition, and China's Rise
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Type Thesis
Length 142 Pages
Area Government
Advisor Stephan G. Brooks
Composed 2007
Summary Power transition theory inadequately addresses the role of economics in the world system. Considering the ever-increasing importance of economics during the current period of globalization, this limits the ability of classic power transition theory to predict the likelihood of conflict during any future transition. In this thesis, I propose a new theoretical model of how economics will affect the satisfaction of any rising state that more fully incorporates the features of the current economic system than past models. After presenting the theoretical basis for my model, I examine two specific cases. First, I examine how my model explains the most recent case of power transition, that between Britain and the U.S. in the early 1900s. My model shows that economic factors significantly contributed to the peaceful nature of that transition. Second, I use my model to both explain the current state of U.S. / China relations and to predict how this relationship might change as China rises to power over the next few decades. I find that although economic factors can constrain conflict due to classic liberal interdependence arguments, they also have the potential to increase the likelihood of conflict in a transition period by making it attractive for the rising power to try to take over the global economic system.

Author Information

Name Kathleen Donald
Picture PIC
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College Dartmouth
Grad Year Not Provided
Extended Info Not Provided